Wednesday 29 December 2010

What about the impact of the U.S. dollar? It's showing strength after months of weakness.

Bernstein:  Normally people say a weak dollar means your exports are going to go up, and there's something to that, although I don't think we're a big manufacturing economy. We export services and agricultural things, and that type of stuff.
But a stronger dollar will be a positive because it will reflect renewed confidence in the U.S. If there's one theme that transcends every bearish view — whether it's inflation, deflation, economic malaise — the general consensus is: You should not invest in the U.S.; there's no future in the U.S.; we're on our way down to some new low in global society. It's quite dramatic. My point is that in 2011 into 2012, people will be surprised by the growth in the U.S., and you will see investment flows come towards the U.S., and that will be a big support for the dollar.
Bianco:  A stronger dollar will be a bit of a head wind to earnings growth, but there will still be strong earnings growth. The focus is going to shift to interest rates: How far can they go up? A stronger dollar is going to help keep interests rates from going up a whole lot. It's also going to attract foreign investors to things like the U.S. equity markets.